GRN 2.6% vs LNP
Incumbent MP
Elizabeth Watson-Brown, since 2022.
Geography
Ryan covers the western suburbs of Brisbane. The seat covers the north side of the Brisbane river from Auchenflower through Toowong, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill and Kenmore. It also covers suburbs further north including The Gap and Ferny Grove.
History
Ryan was first created in 1949. The seat was first won by Nigel Drury in 1949 for the Liberal Party. Drury held the seat until 1975, mainly serving as a backbencher. He was succeeded by John Moore in 1975. Moore served as a minister in Malcolm Fraser’s final term and served in the shadow cabinet during the Hawke/Keating governments.
Moore served as Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism in John Howard’s first government and become Minister for Defence after the 1998 election. He lost the portfolio in a reshuffle in December 2000 and proceeded to resign from Parliament early in 2001.
A swing of 9.7% gave the normally safe Liberal seat to Labor candidate Leonie Short by 255 votes. Liberal candidate Michael Johnson won back the seat at the 2001 general election. Johnson was reelected in 2004 and 2007. A 6.6% swing to the ALP in 2007 made the seat marginal, and the ensuing redistribution cut the margin further.
Michael Johnson was expelled from the Liberal National Party in May 2010 due to controversies surrounding his role as Chair of the Australia-China Business Forum.
The LNP preselected Brisbane city councillor Jane Prentice in 2010. Prentice won the seat comfortably. Michael Johnson ran as an independent, and came fourth with 8.5% of the vote. Prentice won two more terms in 2013 and 2016.
Prentice lost LNP preselection in 2019 to Brisbane City councillor Julian Simmonds, and he went on to win the seat with relative ease.
Simmonds lost his seat in 2022 to Greens candidate Elizabeth Watson-Brown. The LNP and Labor primary votes both dropped, with the Greens primary vote increasing to push Watson-Brown into second place on primary votes, and Labor preferences gave her a majority of votes after preferences.
Assessment
This seat is a complex race to watch. For Watson-Brown to win re-election, she not only needs to win the preferential count but she also needs to stay ahead of Labor.
Lower house Greens MPs usually increase their support with the benefit of incumbency, and that would be particularly helpful in seeing off the Labor threat.
The LNP’s chances of regaining the seat partly depend on the Coalition’s ability to rebuild its support amongst inner-city voters. They do not appear to have made much progress on that front yet, which should help Watson-Brown.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Julian Simmonds | Liberal National | 38,239 | 38.5 | -10.1 |
| Elizabeth Watson-Brown | Greens | 30,003 | 30.2 | +9.9 |
| Peter Cossar | Labor | 22,146 | 22.3 | -2.1 |
| Damian Coory | Liberal Democrats | 2,582 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Joel Love | One Nation | 2,237 | 2.3 | +0.1 |
| Kathryn Pollard | United Australia | 2,062 | 2.1 | +0.6 |
| Jina Lipman | Animal Justice | 1,088 | 1.1 | -0.8 |
| Janine Rees | Labor | 606 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Axel Dancoisne | Federation Party | 353 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Informal | 3,140 | 3.1 | +0.7 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Elizabeth Watson-Brown | Greens | 52,286 | 52.6 |
| Julian Simmonds | Liberal National | 47,030 | 47.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Cossar | Labor | 52,062 | 52.4 | +8.5 |
| Julian Simmonds | Liberal National | 47,254 | 47.6 | -8.5 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies at the eastern end of the electorate, and these areas have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Enoggera, The Gap and Indooroopilly. The remainder of the booths, most of which lie near the Brisbane River, have been grouped as “West”.
There are two different thresholds that decide who wins Ryan: firstly, who is leading in the race between Labor and the Greens? And then, after preferences, does the LNP have a majority against the main progressive opponent?
On a two-candidate-preferred basis, the Greens won a majority in three out of four areas, ranging from 56% in Enoggera to 57.2% in the Gap. The LNP won 52.9% in the west. The Greens also won 52.3% of the pre-poll votes and the LNP won 51.7% of the other vote.
On a primary vote basis, the Greens outpolled Labor in three out of four areas, with the Greens primary vote peaking at 36% in Indooroopilly. Labor polled 28% in Enoggera, outpolling the Greens in that area.
Generally the Labor vote was highest at the northern end of the seat, the Greens vote highest in the eastern end of the seat, and the LNP vote highest in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Indooroopilly | 36.3 | 19.5 | 56.2 | 18,433 | 18.6 |
| The Gap | 34.1 | 22.9 | 57.2 | 11,435 | 11.5 |
| Enoggera | 26.9 | 28.4 | 56.0 | 8,569 | 8.6 |
| West | 28.6 | 18.1 | 47.1 | 5,271 | 5.3 |
| Pre-poll | 29.5 | 23.0 | 52.3 | 30,812 | 31.0 |
| Other votes | 26.3 | 22.0 | 48.3 | 24,796 | 25.0 |
Election results in Ryan at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs LNP), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, the Greens and Labor.
A possible scenario is that the Greens and LNP primary votes fall but Labor’s rises, but not to the extent Labor will make the 2CP.
There are teal-ish and moderate liberal demographics. They have a disliking of Dutton, moreso than of Morrison. It might make them swing to Labor as they find the Greens too left-wing for their liking or to vote tactically to help Labor.
The Greens suffered swings at various elections in the inner city, notably QLD and ACT. If this trend continues, the Green vote in the eastern and northern parts would be most affected, as seen at the state election. Outside of UQ and St Lucia, a cohort of Greens voters are not rusted-on voters nor economically left-wing or socialist. They may be open to switching their votes.
I seem to recall some discussion on this site a few years ago where the hypothesis was put forward that former Liberal voters here switched to the Greens instead of Labor because Labor is perceived as the party of the working class.
I think @Nicholas that from a social class perspective the Greens, or at least Greens voters, have more in common with the Libs than Labor. Now as Labor moves inexorably towards being a party of the professional (particularly public service) class (and the Libs slowly move the other way) that is becoming less true.
I don’t think most of the professional class hold a lot of love for Dutton.
@Mostly Labor. Agreed, 100%, many Greens voters (namely the more affluent ones) overlap with the Liberals in terms of not being working-class or genuinely espousing working-class interests. Labor is the only balanced major option for working-class people who are wage earners – both the Greens and Libs are relatively more destructive.
Most of the professional class doesn’t love Dutton, they preferred a Turnbull type.
The political realignment of the working class to right-wing populists (which the Liberals are trying to rebrand as to win them over) and Labor being perceived as the party of so-called inner city “elites” has reversed that a bit.
In the past I think the core demographic of Greens voters crossed over more with traditional “small l” liberals in terms of social class than they did with Labor. This included up to (and including) 2016. I think from 2019 that has shifted pretty significantly.
Also there are different cohorts of Greens voters; one is the socially progressive but often quite affluent, highly educated professional class. But there is also the more socialist, left-wing student activist cohort of Greens voters too.
Different seats I think have a different balance of them. Whereas Brisbane, Ryan & Higgins certainly had the former, Wills certainly has more of the latter, while Macnamara, Melbourne & Cooper I think have a more balanced combination of both.
I think the rise of the Teals has pushed the Greens more to the latter, both in how they campaign and also where they focus resources. It’s easy to forget that Greens were treating Kooyong as a winnable seat in 2019 (and even 2022 before Monique Ryan seized the momentum). I
I think that is now the “soft” Green vote that would prefer teals and is happy to vote for the right Labor candidate (e.g. a strong incumbent or one who is able to brand themselves well) – and I don’t think that’s different in the post gentrification Melbourne and Sydney suburbs (which have a bit more student fervour and renter class left wing vote). Conversely the effect of apartments, renters and stay at home millennials shouldn’t be overlooked in the teal seats (i.e. actual left wing voters).
I will note as well that Bob Brown has featured much more in Greens campaigns than any other election I can remember since he stepped down as leader – presumably to rebuke the “Greens are no longer the party of Bob Brown” refrain. I don’t think any of the Greens candidates in winnable lower house seats are particularly off-putting to moderates (except maybe Remah Naji in Moreton – seems very strongly influenced by Sriranganathan and does a lot of long social media posts criticising the party she’s running for)
re redistribution im wanting to move ryan to the brisbane river and then eastwards into Brisbane
I live here and this one will be a squeaker. I think green win but a tight 2CP like 51-49
I’m saying lib win.
Queensland is expected to have very little swing statewide, or even swing to Labor in 2PP. State election this seat only had a 1.5% swing to the LNP or so despite a 7% swing statewide, and labors primary I think even went up in the state electorates here. The Greens would definitely be threatened by Labor *if* Labor was actually running a serious campaign, which they are not. I think Greens swing towards in 2CP, and the seat will be about as marginal in the 3CP as the 2CP (2-4% swing needed to unseat Greens in 2028 to either major after all is settled).
There should be a strong case for returning the areas of Brisbane LGA to Ryan from Blair as this was formally in the division prior to the creation of Wright in 2009.
What hasn’t been mentioned, is something has happened to the Liberal Party organisation in this area. I have handed out at the same booth for nearly 20 years. What is extremely noticeable is the change in their ability to staff booths on election day. Prior to Scott Emerson’s defeat, the booths had an excess of liberal volunteers in their 50’s and 60’s. At the last state election, which the liberals almost won, there were two bored paid students.
Another misconception – yes Ryan had always been Liberal until now – but its liberals are a dying breed. Ryan was the bastion of true liberals of the Liberal party in Qld, like no other seat. Jane Prentice being turfed by developer bro was probably the last straw for many members. Jane Prentice’s husband is Ian Prentice, member for Toowong 1980-83, one of the gingers.
Libby for the win, until she retires.
@Am Now
Newspoll, Resolve, Freshwater and Redbridge (albeit a state poll) all showed movement to the Coalition from 2022 in their most recent state breakdowns/surveys, mostly in the region of 2-4% as well.
Will be very close here
The green win is a reflection of the change in demographics which must have happened here.
I do not get the confidence in the Libs here. On the state election results this would be like a ~53ish Grn/Lab seat. This is the most left trending seat in QLD, the polls this week have the Labor TPP barely swinging since 2022. And this is meant to be a seat that is going to buck the trend and swing more than the state or nation wide average?
@drake state results dn\ont replicate at federal level in qld.
John, even so the LNP have struggled here in the past. I believe Simmonds and Brisbane MP Trevor Evans were the only ones to suffer a swing against them in 2019 when all other LNP MP’s received swings in their favour. As a result, this seat could diverge from the statewide average and still elect Elizabeth Watson Brown.
Even considering the state results, all the inner-city districts (Maiwar, McConnel, South Brisbane, Clayfield and Cooper) saw muted/below average swings against Labor.
state election was fought on styate issues. if katter had not reopedn the abortion issue libs win would of been greater. this election will be fought on CoL
John, I know but considering past results a divergence from the state and national average is still possible. After all, the 2019 election was somewhat fought on cost of living (concerns about impact of Labor’s tax changes on mining and other primary industry sectors). These issues are less of a concern for the affluent inner-city districts, so it is not certain that the LNP can gain this seat.
Overall, I think the LNP has at best a 50/50 chance of winning.
Surely if it’s fought on CoL that would favour Labor & Greens. A CoL focus does not help the Liberal Party whatsoever as they really have no policies to deal with CoL at all, other than cutting the fuel excise which is less relevant in the inner city.
@Mick not necessarily, the demographics of this seat aren’t really changing. It’s always been a fairly affluent seat, with leafy suburbia and semi-rural areas. There are also a few young renters, around the university in Saint Lucia. The only part of the seat that’s undergone major demographic change imo is the northern part around Mitchelton, which has really gentrified over the past 5 years. But it doesn’t contribute much to the overall result.
I put the swing to The Greens down to the unpopularity of the Morrison government – most of the Liberals in this area are “small-L”. If a teal ran in this seat, they would’ve been very competitive. A lot of them would’ve voted Greens as a protest vote due to the Morrison government, on issues like integrity and the environment.
@trent how does it favour labor and the greens its happened on their watch so what makes you think they can fix it?
@Drake QLD is famous for voting different ways at a council, state and federal level. I’d take state results here with a grain of salt. I live locally, most people I know vote Labor at a state level (better services) and LNP at a federal level (lower taxes). The failures of the Newman government have also put a lot of people off voting LNP at a state level, especially because Newman’s seat of Ashgrove overlapped with much of Ryan.
@Yoh An
I’d put the swing away from the libs in 2019 down to two main factors. Firstly, change of leadership. Most of the Libs here are small-L, and Turnbull was fairly popular amongst them. Changing to Morrison would’ve driven a few of them away. Secondly, Jane Prentice was fairly popular local MP, and her preselection defeat would’ve soured the Libs’ image in voters minds.
How do you mean it happened on their watch? COL implies inflation.
Firstly, inflation was global and I wouldn’t blame either of the governments for it. But even for voters who do blame the government of the day, inflation rose to under 6% under the previous government, and reduced to 2.4% under the this one.
So to quote yourself, what would make a voter think that the party responsible for the inflation would be able to fix it better than the party whose watch it actually DID reduce under..? Makes no sense.
Even if you talk about interest rate rises, they are a direct consequence of inflation so they were caused by inflation rising to 6%, not by it reducing to 2.4%. Most people understand rate rises are a delayed reaction to that – and while rates are higher now than when Labor took office, again it’s the same story: they started rising under the former government and have started falling (with more reductions expected) under the current government.
Again though, in all these cases it was predominantly global factors anyway.
I don’t think you give voters enough credit if you think the vast majority of them will simply blame Labor. At this point now, I think it’s only Liberal partisans trying to push that narrative who are saying that.
The abortion issue at the last state election had nothing to do with abortion
And everything with the kap trying to create s hung parliament where they had some say. Kap cannot be trusted to act outside their own self interest.
The housing affordability “crisis” was due to the huge rise in house value. 55k 1978
To almost 1 million on 2018 was not unusual.
Imagine a $2 m house where the purchaser had to borrow $1m pay interest and capital over say 25 years
The sums… any interest rate rise is dire
Even 0.25%
Travellingthrugh Ryan this morning ad it is very Apparantly that campaigning in this seat I far more intense than in other Northern Brisbane seats. Large numbers of. Greens ALP and Liberal corflutes up on Residential and commerciaaal. Fences. Greens holding street meeting to catch rush hour traffic on Moggil Road.
Mick’s comment about KAP and abortion have nothing to do with Ryan andddd pobabbbly nothing to do with the Federal election This comment is clearly using this site for political campaigning purposes rather than discussion about campaigning. If he is Allowed to get away with it there are hundreds of campaigns that will do likewise.
KAP have no candidate in Ryan.